BREAKING: Bola Tinubu As Minister Of Power

On Wednesday, Adebayo Adelabu, tendered his resignation as minister of power, to vie for a ticket the Oyo state gubernatorial race. I do not envy him because he is leaving at a time of relatively low power generation. Though he got Nigeria’s power transmission to the highest ever in 2025, he leaves office at a time when the numbers are not good enough to campaign on. Adelabu is gone to state politics, so, who is next?

For decades, Nigerians have looked for someone who will solve our electricity crisis. If you are an adult in Nigeria, you must have heard conversations like this: “Let one president just come, fix power, and go. Then another one can come and fix roads, and so on”. In 2015, when Babatunde Fashola, former governor of Lagos, bagged the portfolio as minister of power, works and housing, we thought the problems would come to an end. But, while Fashola made some progress in eight years, he could not solve the problem wholesale.

Last month marked exactly 11 years since he declared at Bola Tinubu’s birthday colloquium that “power generation is not rocket science”. I’m tempted to believe that Fashola briefed candidate Bola Tinubu about how difficult the power situation in Nigeria is.

At least Tinubu must have some knowledge of the problem when he promised constant power in four years.

“Whichever way, by all means necessary, you must have electricity, and you will not pay for estimated bill anymore. A promise made will be a promise kept. If I don’t keep the promise and I come for a second term, don’t vote for me,” Tinubu said at a town hall meeting in Lagos before adding the caveat “Unless I give you adequate reasons why I couldn’t deliver.”

It is nine months to the next election, and Tinubu has not yet kept that promise of constant power supply, and as of today, there is no minister at the saddle in that ministry. And with all things politics in Nigeria, the future defines the present; political appointments are often made to serve a future electoral purpose(s).

The power problem

I am not an expert in power generation, but my history of reporting power generation in Nigeria for more than a decade, coupled with my experience in policy development gives me a fair understanding of the problem.

As of today, Nigeria can generate more than 13,000 MW of electricity, but the highest the Transmission Company of Nigeria can carry to distribution companies and consumers is less than 6,000 MW. So we are the classic example of “the lazy man, who does not roast what he kills in hunting”.

In the event that we even get all 13,000 MW to the consumers, Nigerians bypass meters to ensure they do not have to pay for electricity. Government agencies, who are used to FG owning the entire electricity infrastructure, also struggle to pay for the power they use. MDAs and Aso Rock owe more than N100 billion, making growth impossible for distribution and generation companies. Let me not speak about power subsidies, since “subsidy” is a forbidden word in Nigeria.

So the power problem in Nigeria is a people, infrastructure and finance problem. People are difficult to fix, infrastructure takes time to build out, and Nigeria is heavily short on finance. Triple wahala for Tinubu.

Tinubu as minister of power

Goodluck Jonathan and Umar Musa Yar’Adua are the only Nigerian presidents since 1999, who have not doubled as minister of petroleum. For multiple reasons, Nigerian presidents — Obasanjo, Buhari, Tinubu — always hold on to the ministry of petroleum, which serves as the financial lifeblood of the country. They do this because they want to have the final say on how Nigeria makes money, assign oil blocks and trade oily political favours.

In fairness to them, they also make sure things happen within the oil sector: oil blocks went from foreign hands to local hands, PIB became PIA, and more recently, federation account got a boost by executive power.

So, you would not blame me if I begin to crave the same attention for the ministry of power. Currently, the minister’s powers are limited. He or she cannot arbitrarily offset DisCos or GenCos debt. (S)he cannot spend money that has not been pre-approved by the president and the Federal Executive Council.

However, if the president is minister, he can ask for the funds, and get his team to approve it. No one dares undermine the president’s ministry. This might actually signal to investors that the government is finally serious about power and may actually begin to move the needle.

He can even decide, and convince his team, to privatise the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which many believe is a key bottleneck in the power problem — or at least get a concessionaire that does the fixing.

Simply put, while Tinubu may not take up the portfolio as minister of power, he needs to ensure that the kind of attention the ministry gets is more than what the ministry of petroleum currently gets; when we begin to treat power as the financial lifeblood of the Nigerian economy, which it actually is, we can begin to make great progress in power generation as a country.

Adelabu is gone. Nigeria needs a president and minister willing to own this problem completely — and solve it. If it’s any motivation, electricity will be on the ballot in 2027 and Nigerians will be voting.